{"id":3122,"date":"2014-09-29T17:50:23","date_gmt":"2014-09-29T08:50:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/je1sgh.mydns.jp\/je1sghblog\/?p=3122"},"modified":"2014-09-29T17:50:23","modified_gmt":"2014-09-29T08:50:23","slug":"%e6%9c%aa%e6%9d%a5%e3%81%ae%e3%81%93%e3%81%a8%e3%81%af%e8%a7%a3%e3%82%8a%e3%81%be%e3%81%9b%e3%82%93","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/je1sgh.mydns.jp\/je1sghblog\/?p=3122","title":{"rendered":"\u672a\u6765\u306e\u3053\u3068\u306f\u89e3\u308a\u307e\u305b\u3093"},"content":{"rendered":"

昨日の，火山噴火予知連絡会の記者会見では，会長の藤井東大名誉教授が「正確な予知・予測はできない」という趣旨のことを強調してました．<\/span><\/p>\n

たぶん，理科系の人1<\/a><\/sup>ちゃんと，勉強してきた人は^^;<\/span>は，未来の事象を高い確度で予測することは不可能って解っていると思います2<\/a><\/sup>よほど単純な現象を除いて．<\/span>．<\/p>\n

異常な事態に遭遇したら，とっさに的確な判断・行動ができるかどうか，そして，最後は運ですね3<\/a><\/sup>DMATの医師も「生死分けたのは運」と、毎日新聞朝刊(2014\/09\/30)で述べてます。<\/span>．<\/span><\/p>\n

日本列島は，大地震，大津波，集中豪雨，竜巻，そして今回の火山噴火と天災続きです4<\/a><\/sup>日本列島に限らないと思いますが．<\/span>．<\/p>\n

予測ができないとなると，想定しうるあらゆることに対応する土木工事をしたがる一部の勢力がありますが，莫大な金がかかるし，たいていは景観を壊すことになり，そして，それとて，完全に被害・犠牲を防げるものではありません．そして，想定外のことには全く対応できないし．<\/p>\n

無駄だから何もしない，というのも手かもしれませんが，金をあまりかけず，知恵を絞った”減災”の方向に向かうべきだと思います．<\/p>\n

とっさの的確な判断力を鍛えるためには，職場や地域での各種の防災訓練に参加すること，そして，個人個人が日頃からイメージしたり，工夫をすることが大事でしょうね．<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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